“Bangaal me bhi……. (loud cheers)”… the Union Home Minister Mr. Amit Shah had roared from the victory rally in Delhi after the massive victory in the 2019 Loksabha elections and getting 18 seats out of 42 in the state. The elections season of 2026 is upcoming in Bengal and the politics enthusiasts across the country will look forward to its results. The state politics which was dominated by communist vs congress narrative for nearly six decades after independence today stands in a context where both left and congress has been reduced to mere signboards. This turnaround happened post the 2019 Loksabha elections in West Bengal where the BJP’s meteoric rise stunned political pundits. From a mere 4% vote share in 2011 assembly elections, 8 years later the BJP vote share rose to 38%. For all consecutive major elections in Bengal this vote share has remained mostly constant.
Why this is a significant vote share:
The 2011 census shows Bengal has a substantial minority population (27% Muslims and 72% Hindus). In the current context, it is not a political miscalculation to assume BJP’s vote share amongst the minorities is insignificant. This implies that more than 50% of the state’s majority community is voting for a right wing party which had minimal space in the state’s political sphere. The TMC on the opposite has consolidated its vote share even more by expanding its sphere of influence amongst minorities. TMC’s vote share in 2014 Loksabha elections was 39% but it gained 34 seats as the opposition vote split with CPM getting 29% and BJP getting 17% votes riding on the 2014 Modi wave. In 2021 riding on minority consolidation and plethora of welfare schemes, the TMC vote share rose to 48%.
Who all are voting for the BJP in Bengal :
As per my understanding, if there are 100 BJP voters in West Bengal they can be divided into three sub-categories-
A. The TMC-Mamata hater ex Comrades (50%): In the 2019 Loksabha while the BJP went up from 17% to 39%, the left front went down from 29% to 7%. The Communists of West Bengal, especially those who have faced the wrath of the ruling TMC first hand in rural and upcountry districts chose to set Marx aside and trust on Modi’s BJP to take the TMC head on with muscle and money power.
B. The Bhodrolok Hindutvabadi (30%): Despite voting for secular parties for decades, the Bengali Bhadralok has had its fare of memories going back to partition. What were part of family gossips have now become mainstream. If you check Hindu consolidation, BJP’s share of Hindu votes in Bengal is higher than many hardline BJP states.
C. The disgruntled youth: Large sections of Bengali youth has been victims of Mamata Banerjee’s socialist politics resulting in them having to leave the state due to lack of jobs. A lot of them have actually gone to BJP ruled states for jobs. A big chunk of the youth may vote for BJP in the hope of development.
Why the BJP faces an uphill task:
A. TMC organisational machinery: TMC has mastered the art of its predecessor, the Communist party to develop a party state. Its organisational machinery is way superior to the BJP and its presence is deep rooted into every alley of Bengal having a TMC party office. BJP leaders themselves accept that they are unable to give polling agents in multiple booths.
B. Welfare schemes: The TMC’s campaign is strongly pivoted on the list of welfare schemes which literally covers every Bengali’s life from birth to death. Be it the kanyasree benefitting daughters, to lokkhir bhandar benefitting elderly women or the recent jubo sathi for unemployed youths; TMC’s government schemes have immense support on the ground level especially among women voters.
C. Mamata Banerjee’s personal charisma: Mamata Banerjee indisputably remains the strongest political figure in today’s Bengal. BJP has not been able to project any equivalent face to match her stature. She still strikes some emotional chord with urban voters who have been loyal to her even during the peak phase of Communist rule in Bengal. The elites of South Calcutta have been the ones to send Mamata Banerjee to parliament even in 2004 Loksabha elections when her party won just 1 seat.
D. BJP’ unacceptability among certain sections of Bengal: Large sections of the Bengali Bhadralok have spent their entire lives under communism or pro socialist governance. The BJP still is seen by many as a communal force not suitable for the social fabric of the state by many Bengalis. The discontent for the party among minorities is evident in every election too.
As the campaign picks up on all sides it will be a nail-biter to watch as Bengalis vote on the 23rd and 29th of April to decide their next government. But irrespective of the outcome, BJP faces a mammoth task ahead if it looks forward to toppling Mamata Banerjee in Bengal despite having a solid 38% vote share. 38% is in reality enough to form the government in multiple Indian states but in West Bengal with a massive grassroot level organization it seems to be “Advantage Trinamool” till today.
Rajniti Radar 
Leave a comment